1 HN user recommended this interview1 month2012–2014score 1
Years with an HN recommendation, 2007–2026
HN pointed people to it for the original interview and Musk's concise take on first-principles thinking.
Kevin Rose interviews Elon Musk in 2012 about his companies PayPal, SpaceX and Tesla. It includes Musk's short explanation of reasoning from first principles versus by analogy.
“Elon Musk has a cute and short explanation of "reasoning from first principle" vs. "reasoning by analogy” (HN, 2014)
If you have't already seen it, Kevin Rose interviews Elon Musk: [this video] Also, Neil deGrasse Tyson talks about if there was a space race with China the US would be on Mars in 18 months: [link] It would be truly amazing if a private company was the first to set foot on another planet.
Why does the link lead to AllThingsD ?!?!?!?!? either point to the YouTube video itself [this video] or to the show page at [link] Don't give News Corp the traffic it doesn't deserve.
Original interview video preferred over a news site link
That was my leading theory, and "cross between a rail-gun and a Concorde" all but confirms it. Flight path like a Concorde, propulsion like a rail-gun. Exploit the natural vacuum above our heads without expensive tunnels. Let's look at the attributes Elon has described publicly, and see how they compare to a launch loop: [link] * could be cheaper than CA high-speed rail? Check (no right-of-way). * "theoretically fastest way" from A-B? Check. * can't crash? Check (w/ well-designed rails). * immune to weather? Check. * twice as fast as a plane? Check. * lower energy cost than a car? Check. * self-powering with solar panels? Check. * stores power w/o batteries? Check. [this video] * requires aerodynamic expertise? Check. * "ground-based Concorde – as fast as a Concorde, but on the ground"? Arguably. All weight is supported by the ground, and cars take a Concorde-like path. * rails are not needed? BZZT!! However, he may be talking about the "right-of-way" aspect of rails here. [link] * leaves right when you arrive? Check (w/ individual pods). [link] * isn't a vac tunnel? Check. Of all the ideas that have been kicked around, the launch loop seems to fit best. Elon would certainly have been exposed to the idea when brainstorming for SpaceX. My only question for the past few weeks has been, "How do you build the thing?" It doesn't inertially support itself in the air until the rotor is spun up, and the rotor can only be spun up when it's fully constructed between the endpoints. Catch-22!
Elon's described attributes compared to a launch loop concept
It's funny that most people that are actually working on AGI have stopped even bothering to provide arguments for why they think AGI it's possible to the general public, because they know they're close and that "they'll just prove that it's possible to build it by fucking building it" instead of doing armchair thinking, while AGI detractors don't lose any opportunity to launch pseudo-arguments like missiles :) ...just to bite the bate a bit: > We have no proof that artificial general intelligence can exist. Well, we had no proof that fire can be produced ultil the first paleohumans learned to make fire. We had no proof that mechanized flight was possible until we built the first flying machines. We had no proof that space flight is possible before we made it possible etc. These kinds of arguments only make some sort of sense when you reason from first principle instead of reasoning by analogy : for example if you found an argument that, starting from the current known basic laws of physics, would after some logical steps (no, analogies with "what we now know exists" don't count as logical steps) arrive at the conclusion that AGI is not possible. Elon Musk has a cute and short explanation of "reasoning from first principle" vs. "reasoning by analogy": [this video] . My point is that the way you and other people like you reason "by analogy" is just plain wrong. It's a useful way of thinking, that can help you make lots of very good business decision and profit from them. But when yo
Musk's short explanation of first-principles versus analogy reasoning
Video list and Hacker News comment labels from HackerTube (prompted by @karpathy), released under ODC-By 1.0, built on the open-index/hacker-news archive. Hacker News data is provided by Y Combinator; comments remain the work of their authors. Video titles, channel names and thumbnails belong to their creators and are shown via YouTube. HackerTube Watch is an unofficial edition. Data export of 2026-10-31.
4 Hacker News comments
From the HN archive; up to 20 kept per video, favoring different commenters. Recommendations first.
Citations, criticism and jokes
Read more
Read more