HackerTubewatch
Surprise me
Frame from Velocity NY 2013:   Richard Cook, "Resilience In Complex Adaptive Systems" Plays via YouTube's privacy-enhanced embed

Velocity NY 2013: Richard Cook, "Resilience In Complex Adaptive Systems"

20 videos recommended on HN
YouTube
4 HN users recommended this talk10 months2017–2021 score 13
Years with an HN recommendation, 2007–2026

HN people cite it constantly as the clearest explanation of normalization of deviance and how complex systems drift toward failure.

Richard Cook's short Velocity 2013 talk on resilience in complex adaptive systems, arguing systems operate near the edge of failure and that the surprise is how rarely they fail. He presents a model of how pressures push systems toward failure boundaries.

“One of the most important talks I've ever seen is Richard Cook's” (HN, 2018)

6 strong recommendations · 5 recommendations · 4 citations · Talks

15 Hacker News comments

From the HN archive; up to 20 kept per video, favoring different commenters. Recommendations first.

@sunils34 Apr 2017 Strongly recommends
on HN thread How Complex Systems Fail (1998) [pdf]
Richard Cook's writing and talks on systems have hugely shaped my thinking on systems. For those interested in more, he gave a highly entertaining talk on system resiliency here and introduces a helpful model. [this video] I also wrote a post summarizing how I think about Rasmussen’s model in startups and web applications. [link]
Entertaining talk on system resiliency with a helpful model.
@pdkl95 Jun 2017 Strongly recommends
on HN thread Safety lapses hobble Los Alamos National Lab’s work on U.S. nuclear warheads
> the staff had become “de-sensitized” to the risk of a serious accident. Yet again serious problems happen due to the Normalization Of Deviance. We really need to find a way to create working conditions that encourage correcting problematic situations immediately before the behavior becomes normalized. Regarding the management/other problems... I encourage everyone in ever industry that is ever involved with safety (i.e. most industries) to see Richard Cook's short talk about "Resilience in Complex Adaptive Systems"[1]. [1] [this video]
Short talk on resilience in complex systems.
@pdkl95 Jun 2018 Strongly recommends
on HN thread Bedford and the Normalization of Deviance
One of the most important talks I've ever seen is Richard Cook's "Resilience In Complex Adaptive Systems"[1], in which he explains the fundamental abstract mechanism that causes the normalization of deviance. [1] [this video]
Explains the mechanism behind normalization of deviance.
@pdkl95 Dec 2018 Strongly recommends
on HN thread Sydney Opal Tower: Thousands evacuated after 'crack'
> But if you stop, they may continue increasing the dilution. There’s a normalization of deviance. For a very good explanation of the mechanism that causes this kind of normalization of deviance, I recommend Richard Cook's outstanding talk "Resilience In Complex Adaptive Systems"[1]. [1] [this video]
Mechanism behind normalization of deviance.
@pdkl95 Apr 2019 Strongly recommends
on HN thread Google Is Eating Our Mail
> Indifference that does not cause a business problem remains indifference. More generally, indifference to small "trivial" problems eventually normalizes the deviant behavior[1]. Evil behavior doesn't happen in one step, it's end result of regularly being indifferent to "minor" problems[2]. For a very good explanation of why this happens, I recommend Richard Cook's excellent talk, "Resilience In Complex Adaptive Systems"[3]. [1] [link] [2] [link] [3] [this video]
Why indifference to small problems accumulates.
@pdkl95 May 2020 Strongly recommends
on HN thread Facebook executives shut down efforts to make the site less divisive
Read more
> I cannot believe that everyone is ethicality challenged The difficult ethical discussion probably never happens. The decisions being made in those meetings are usually seen as small/inconsequential. The problems caused by those "small" decisions are ignored. Eventually those problems become normalized allowing another "small" decision to be made. Humans seem to be very bad at recognizing how a set of "small" decisions eventually add up to major - sometimes shocking[1] - consequences that nobody would have approved if asked directly. Most of the time, nobody realizes just how deviant their situation had become. For a good explanation of the mechanism underlying the normalization of deviance (as an abstract model), I strongly recommend this[2] short talk by Richard Cook. [1] [link] [2] [this video] ("Resilience In Complex Adaptive Systems")
Abstract model of how deviance becomes normal.
@pdkl95 Dec 2017 Recommends
on HN thread When the Judge Distrusts Your Lawyers
Read more
> both individual and group ethics have to fail However, they don't have to fail at the same time or in a single step. This type of problem can creep in slowly over years as the "normalization of deviance"[1]. Richard Cook presented[2] a very useful model for how this type of problem creeps into complex system. The pressure from economic and workload concerns never goes away, so unless there is a proactive, explicit counter force, way to push back against that force, the system will inevitably be pushed toward failure. Therefor it's important to stop problems early when they are small. The magnitude of the counter force increases rapidly as behavior becomes increasingly deviant. [1] [link] [2] [this video]
Model of how pressure pushes systems toward failure.
@pdkl95 Apr 2018 Recommends
on HN thread Facebook to change user terms, limiting effect of EU privacy law
Aka "Normalization of Deviance"[1]. Fix the minor problems now , or they become the new normal, eventually accumulating until a huge deviance from "normal" behavior isn't even noticed. The stories[2] about airline pilots completely ignoring checklists and unusual alarms while trying to take off with the gust lock still engaged are a shocking example of strong this effect can be. For a very good explanation of how this happens, see Richard Cook's short talk "Resilience in Complex Adaptive Systems"[3]. [1] [link] [2] [link] [3] [this video]
Explains how deviance becomes normal.
@di4na Mar 2021 Recommends
on HN thread Everything is broken, and it’s okay
Read more
The good news, yes. The bad news: it depends a lot of what you mean, it may not be the answer you search and i do not have a "perfect" reference, because it is considered mostly obvious in these fields... But before i get there, a few things. > (that we are building castles on quick sands with our leaky abstractions that try to fit into constantly changing reality) Nearly all the references i point to will tell you that this leakiness and this constant changing reality is exactly what makes them work in the real world. Now onto references. A lot of them can be found at [link] I particularly advise to start at [link] [this video] For more in depth, i particularly like [link] And this is basically a whole meta study of all the research and ideas that came to this field since WW2. Beware it is long [link] For an example of how things go wrong when things are correct but interact well together, i advise these two papers on space systems. (I link to Adrian blog on them because they may be easier to read, but there is a link to the papers in there) [link] [link] If these things make you curious for more, there is a lot. Or if you want to talk about/have help navigating what is in the [link] link, feel free to reach to me on twitter or by email. I will be happy to talk more.
Starting point among references on safety and complex systems.
@______- May 2021 Recommends
on HN thread Try This One Weird Trick Russian Hackers Hate
Good comment about this very thing here: [link] > It's just a variation of the Normalization of Deviance. See this[1] short talk by Richard Cook for a very good explanation of the mechanism that causes the transition from "robust" to "superfluous". [1] [this video]
Mechanism behind transition from robust to superfluous.

Citations, criticism and jokes

@pdkl95 Aug 2017 Cites it
on HN thread Bitcoin Exchange Had Too Many Bitcoins
I should have used more specific language; I'm not trying to argue that short selling is "bad". The benefits - such as dampening a crashing market - are large enough to accommodate some risk. I'm primarily addressing the claim that, "There's absolutely nothing wrong with short selling". Ignoring small, acceptable risks is normalizing deviance[1]. [1] [this video]
@pdkl95 Mar 2018 Cites it
on HN thread Theranos, CEO Holmes, and Former President Balwani Charged with Fraud
Read more
> it's a short and murky step ... to outright fraud. Staying vigilant against the normalization of deviance[1] is difficult even in ideal situations. Choosing to normalize deviance as a business strategy is practically guaranteed to rapidly accelerate deviations from acceptable behavior. In any system - including every business - resilience and safety means fixing small problems before they grow into bigger, more damaging problems[2]. > rationalizations for unethical behavior Often, it doesn't even need to be rationalized. When deviant behavior is slowly normalized in small steps, the human mind tends to only see the "small, insignificant problems", and often skips[3] over big changes that should be "obvious". [1] [link] [2] [this video] [3] [link]
Resilience means fixing small problems early.
@pdkl95 Mar 2018 Cites it
on HN thread Zuckerberg Takes Steps to Calm Facebook Employees
> evil Hollywood et al popularize the misconception that evil is fantastic and done with intent . Most of the time evil is banal [1]. The larger problems happen when the unremarkable, small deviances from acceptable behavior becomes normalized [2][3]. [1] [link] [2] [link] [3] [this video]
@pdkl95 May 2018 Cites it
on HN thread How a Pentagon Contract Became an Identity Crisis for Google
Read more
Idealism isn't about living as a monk, it's about not compromising on the things that are often seen as "trivial" or "inconsequential". Most people don't jump from acting ethically to accepting work on that is obviously problematic. What actually happens is a long series of small, trivial compromises and other deviations that eventually become normalized [1]. Humans make mistakes; it isn't possible to live the "ideal monk" life. The real question is how small problems are handled? Compromising when the problem isn't a "big enough" ethical problem inevitably[2] pushes that boundary back in a cycle of normalized small, easily avoided deviances. Instead, if a hard line is taken against small problems when they are still small , a lot of larger problems can be avoided. [1] [link] [2] [this video]

Video list and Hacker News comment labels from HackerTube (prompted by @karpathy), released under ODC-By 1.0, built on the open-index/hacker-news archive. Hacker News data is provided by Y Combinator; comments remain the work of their authors. Video titles, channel names and thumbnails belong to their creators and are shown via YouTube. HackerTube Watch is an unofficial edition. Data export of 2026-10-31.

Keyboard shortcuts

/
Search
j k
Next / previous video
r
Surprise me
l
Like (video page)
w
Watch later (video page)
?
This help
Esc
Close