James Burke Connections, Ep. 1 "The Trigger Effect"

John Baez's blog has a series on how civilizations collapse, first looking at the Anasazi, and then how one might model it using agent-based modeling and also looking at general collapse through differential equations: [link] [link] [link] [link] James Burke is a science historian and BBC documentarian, and in his first episode of "Connections" a series on the nature of innovation, he talks about how fragile our complex infrastructure can be, and, much like this article, how hopeless individualist survival skills would be once we "leave our technological womb". [this video] In his later series, After the Warming, a 1988 documentary which imagines what it would look like in 2050 if we failed to act on climate change (in which it predicted refugee crises, wars, hurricanes, mass flooding), and looks back on thousands of years of climate shaping civilizational rise and collapse, from the Ice Age to the Nabataeans to today and beyond. It gets most things scarily right, with the notable exception of failing to see Japanese economic bubble popping in 1991. [link] [link]

> " we're not going to stop being able to produce enough food to feed everyone in the US " The Great Depression? Hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic? I'm sure there are modern examples as well. There may be a plentitude of food and other products but if the societal and economic structures that process it and get it to where it needs to be collapse, that food might as well be on the far side of the moon. And even producing that food is questionable. Modern production is reliant on mechanical and electronic systems nowadays, even farming. Without replacement parts and consumable supplies, everything rapidly grinds to a halt. We saw an example of this in the recent COVID-19 shortages; lack of packaging and other consumables from overseas blocked domestic production of products even when the actual content of the product was still available. Everything is interlinked today. Everything. Watch episode one of James Burke's excellent documentary "Connections" to get an idea of what occurs when that breaks down: [this video]

I recall visiting the museum many years ago and seeing a demo where they heated a glass rod and pulled a fiber. This was probably when fiber optics was in its infancy. It was definitely a highlight for a young science nerd. I would love to go back some day. Along those lines I highly recommend the episode of the show “How we Got to Now” about glass [0]. It tells the story of how clear glass was developed, something I always took for granted, but early glass was not clear and took a major effort to create. The show then goes into how Corning took it to a new level for fiber optics. The whole series is excellent and similar to James Burke’s excellent series “Connections”. [1] [0] [link] [1] [link] [1] [this video]

I wouldn't be surprised if it is spreading this way. If not already, then certainly in future. Having said that, a steady stream of supplies is what will allow everyone else to stay holed-up. If you can't get the supplies you need to get through the ordeal then you'll start to see individuals go out on far-and-wide "hunting trips" to find those supplies (at best) or you'll start to see societal breakdowns which will give Covid-19 a run for its money on lives and damages. That's more than just trucks delivering food. It may be trucks delivering electrical equipment to keep refrigeration running, to keep other trucks, moving, etc. Modern life depends on surprisingly deep connections. [this video]

I was going to edit but I think a new comment here is more fair: The other comments about commercial vs. residential TP are good, too. Turns out our economy is complex. Think of how even this discussion about TP reveals a large scale bifurcation of how a singular, simple product is produced and supplied. Once you bring in the rest of the upstream and downstream supply chains... it's incomprehensibly complex. This gets to something I'm concerned about which is the readiness of policymakers to designate this business "non-essential" and so should shut down, and that business "essential" and should remain in operation. How much does the essential economy depend on the non-essential economy? I mentioned logistics, I bet trucks carrying TP (of either class) also depend on other, less essential products... how many of these trucks were marginal in the good times and will end up closing up shop reducing overall readily available container space? Some of my clients are companies that make use of industrial CNC machines; and I've seen some of the same machines in use in very different businesses. For example, one client made higher end bicycle parts and the other made lab equipment for bio-tech applications. One is likely considered essential, the other not: the company that makes the CNC machines will still get business from the "essential" business while they won't from the non-essential business. How will that CNC machine company deal with the reduced economies of scale or their ow